Stocks and bonds continued their 2023 recovery in June from the dismal results of 2022. Broad-based US stocks rose 16% through the end of June, while developed country stocks increased 11% and emerging markets stocks were up 5%. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index climbed almost 32% through half of 2023. Bonds also had positive returns through June 30. With the benchmark …
May Market Update: A Crisis Averted
To the surprise of many, the US debt ceiling issue was resolved relatively peacefully in the last week of May into early June. President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy worked out a deal that pleased few of the more extreme members of both political parties, but which raised the debt ceiling until early 2025 in exchange for modest spending cuts …
Ongoing Market Recoveries Against a Backdrop of Uncertainty
The broad stock and bond markets experienced ongoing recoveries against a backdrop of uncertainty in April. US stocks have risen almost 8% for the year, with developed markets up 10% and developing markets up 3%. The 10-year US Treasury rate has declined from 3.88% at the beginning of the year to 3.44% at the end of April, and in turn …
Market Gains Across the Board
After the large declines from 2022 in both the stock and bond markets, the first quarter of 2023 showed market gains across the board. US stocks rose 7%, developed country international almost 8%, and emerging markets international 3.5%. With the 10-year Treasury interest rate declining from 3.88% at the end of 2022 to 3.48% on 3/31/23, bond prices – which …
Stocks and Bonds Fell in February
Stocks and bonds fell in February after recovering over the past four months from the declines of early 2022. Bonds prices fell as the benchmark 10-year Treasury rate rose to 3.92% at the end of February from 3.52% at the end of January. This rate began 2023 at 3.88%, after starting 2022 at 1.51%. We discuss interest rates in more …
Markets Continue Tentative Recovery
Stock and bond markets worldwide continued to recover from the declines of 2022. Bonds (as measured by the Vanguard Total Bond Market index fund) dropped more than 13% for the full year, but rose 3% in the fourth quarter of 2022 and almost 2% in January. US stocks (as measured by the Vanguard Total US Stock Market index fund) fell …
2022 Year-End Market Update
Happy new year! While the past year had some good news (see Economist article, “What 2022 Meant for the World”), we hope 2023 brings some relief for the financial markets. As you probably already know, 2022 ended with stocks and bonds down significantly, despite gains in the fourth quarter. The US, developed, and developing international stock markets all declined between …
One Step Forward, or the Fragility of Recoveries
As occurred in July through mid-August of this year, stock markets around the world have seen significant gains in October and November 2022. The total US stock market rose about 8% in October and 5% in November. International stocks increased 3% in October and 13% in November. Bond prices have also gone up recently, with gains between 1.5% and 4% …
The Stock Market Isn’t the Economy
Stock market performance in 2022 has been dismal. Through October 31, the S&P 500, a broad measure of large companies in the US, had declined 19%. The causes have been diverse: The highest overall inflation in 40 years. Interest rates that have spiked, with the 10-year US Treasury yield rising from 1.5% at the end of 2021 to over 4% …
Consistent Advice Through Difficult Times
After a miserable month of September when stock prices declined 8% and bond prices dropped 4%, we want to provide some context for what’s happened so far in 2022. Accounting for the most recent few days of significant gains in October, the S&P 500 is down a little more than 20% for the year. Bonds have fallen about 15%. The …